Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 11-15-09

Sunday Night Grain Outlook
By Duane Lowry
Sunday, November 15, 2009

OPENING CALL:
Corn= 1-2 higher,     Wheat= 1-2 higher,     Soybeans= 3-5 higher.

Weather will offer harvest delays this week, but I am not sure this is much different than expected in Friday's forecast. Soybean harvest is largely done and weather delay implications to corn are minimal at this point as long as snow stays away. The area with the best harvest potential will be the northwestern Midwest. Weather is worthy of a supportive spin, but that worthiness isn't warranted much beyond creating an opening sentiment.       

News> Chinese banking officials warned the US that the Fed's commitment to keep interest rates low "has already led to a massive US dollar carry trade and massive speculation." They indicated the US needs to change its loose monetary policy to end global asset speculation that will threaten the health of a global economic recovery. The final language of a statement from APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) failed to include a comment on foreign exchange rates, despite a push by Asian exporting countries seeking stability in the US Dollar, as such language was blocked by the US and China.           

Wheat will lean better on outside market influences and expected row-crop strength. Technical conditions warn early week strength may falter as the week evolves.                      

Corn will start on harvest delay concerns, quality rhetoric and outside market strength. Selling interest should be found about a nickel above Friday's close, with limited rally potential above that level at any point during this week.

Soybeans will start higher on short-term corrective strength potential and support from outside markets. We seem to have technical support worthy of maintain gains into/through Monday's trade. Long-term strength potential should be limited, with significant downside potential quickly unfolding if/when outside markets confirm a trending lower pattern below last week's lows.                                 

In summary, the path of least resistance tonight seems to be to the upside. However, maintaining or building upon tonight/tomorrow's strength may prove limited as the week evolves.