Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 11-01-09

Sunday Night Grain Outlook
By Duane Lowry
Sunday, November 1, 2009

OPENING CALL:
Corn= 1-2 lower,     Wheat= 1-2 lower,     Soybeans= 1-2 lower.

Weather is similar to Friday's outlook. The Delta will be largely dry during the next 10 days. The Midwest will only see very light precip of 1/10-1/4 inch or less during the next 10 days, with most areas completely dry. Overall, harvest potential during the next 10 days will be the best 10-day period as a whole so far in the 2009 harvest season.      

News>.           

Wheat will…                     

Corn will…

Soybeans will…                                 

In summary, we really have no commodity specific storylines tonight, thus we may as well lump everything together. Harvest weather will be seen as favorable and largely in line with Fridays forecast, but if anything, maybe a more extended period of favorable conditions with very limited moisture opportunities. Weather will be a bearish influence. However, it may be that the most important influence on grain trade this week will be outside markets and general price action that threatens to unleash greater liquidation pressures. Outside markets had offered warning signs for some time of major trend changes being imminent. Last week's price action suggests we are beyond the "warning" stage an into the "confirmation" stage of major trend changes. As the week evolves, expect selling pressures to build in crude, stocks and gold. Expect support to build for the US Dollar. If true, this will combine with favorable US harvest weather to produce significant selling pressures and possible swift and sizeable price declines. Both Informa and FCStone will offer their latest production estimates this week. It is unlikely either will offer confirmation/support of the most bullish trade rhetoric that has evolved during the past couple of weeks due to excessive moisture and harvest delays. Many markets have now shown "turns" and this could easily be a week that offers confirmations of these turns. The burden of proof is on the bulls to find a reason to rally. Any strength attempts in the grains this week should be feeble and short-lived. We appear poised and vulnerable for notable price weakness, with outside markets appearing quite vulnerable and the real key for grain/soy price direction into the November crop report. Any strength attempt tonight should be limited and will be seen as a selling opportunity by multiple market sectors, thus limiting any chance at trade into positive territory.                    

This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.