Producer Alert, 10-14-09

Recent price gains may have some fundamental footing due to harvest delays, but in terms of ultimate final harvest production totals, the fundamental foundation is extremely shaky.

While corn drying costs will be high and corn test weight may be a disappointment for some, these are typically not bullish influences towards price. Current market rhetoric that uses these reasons as the backed-into excuse for why prices are higher can lead to wrong assumptions.

The overall supply outlook for both corn and soybeans is favorable and will not be a supportive price influence in the months ahead and not be worthy of sponsoring bullish trends. It is very possible that we are currently experiencing a harvest time peak from which very limited additional price gains may be found through the next several months.

"Store & Hold/Hope" could be a marketing strategy that proves to be very disappointing in the months ahead.