Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 8-30-09

Sunday Night Grain Outlook By Duane Lowry Sunday, August 30, 2009 OPENING CALL: Corn= lower, Wheat= lower, Soybeans= lower. Weather provides a chance for borderline temps in southeast MN, northeast IA and much of Wisconsin tonight. Any frost should be

Outside Markets...

I have discussed several times, both here and in the morning and afternoon commentaries that the outside markets would soon rollover and become a negative influence to the grain trade. We appear to be seeing this unfold now. Producers need to respect

Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 8-23-09

Sunday Night Grain Outlook By Duane Lowry Sunday, August 23, 2009 OPENING CALL: Corn= steady-better, Wheat= steady-better, Soybeans= higher. Weather provides favorable moisture and temperature conditions throughout the next two weeks in virtually all

Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 8-16-09

Sunday Night Grain Outlook By Duane Lowry Sunday, August 16, 2009 OPENING CALL : Corn= 1-2 lower, Wheat= 1-2 lower, Soybeans= steady-easier. Weather will provide 85% coverage of the Midwest during the next 5 days and 70% coverage of the Delta. While moisture

Outside markets...

Firm outside markets will bet much of the credit for overnight strength in the grains. These outside markets, gold, crude and stocks are in their final stages of a topping process. Be careful not to expect these outside markets to provide continual support

Short-term price teasers

Overnight gains are achieving some much-needed technical strength in corn and beginning a process that can evolve into a topping process for soybeans. Be sure to keep focus on longer-term bearish profiles that exist for corn, seeing today's strength

Corn Hedging Opportunity

July 2010 futures offer good carry and should be considered as a hedging tool for any planned farm-stored 2009 corn production that has not yet been priced. The fundamental backdrop is bearish and appears likely to stay that way for a while. You must

Gold is faltering...

As discussed in previous posts last week, it is important to watch for signs that the "inflation-minded" markets are rolling over. Gold has traded $15 lower this morning and charts are beginning to look vulnerable. Crude is also showing signs

Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 8-9-09

Sunday Night Grain Outlook By Duane Lowry Sunday, August 9, 2009 OPENING CALL: Corn= 1-3 lower, Wheat= 1-3 lower, Soybeans= 4-6 lower. Weather provides some increasing dryness concerns for parts of China. Weekend US Midwest precip favored the north. US

Watch for signs...

Watch for signs of faltering price action in the inflation-based markets. This morning's economic data produced knee-jerk strength in crude oil, gold and stocks. Inflation-minded traders have fully committed to bullish crude and gold positions, as

Inflation or Deflation?

This debate may be the most significant influencer for agricultural prices during the next 6 months. Gold, Stocks, Crude and the US Dollar are all at significant turning points. If they tilt towards deflation, it will lead to a broad-based liquidation

Informa Weighs In...

Informal released their August crop production forecasts this morning. In an unusual move they offered two different projections, one apparently seeking to estimate USDA's Aug estimate and the other projecting what they believe will be the FINAL US

Producer sales...

While it sometimes takes time to turn a market and we can spend some time "up here", I encourage you to focus at least equally on downside potential heading into the harvest season, and not just "waiting for the top tick" mentality.

FCStone Production estimates

FCStone pegs US corn production at 12.814 bil, 160 bpa. FCStone pegs US soybean production at 3.247 bpa, 42.4 bpa. USDA will issue their production estimates August 12th. USDA's last projection was 12.29 bil (153.4 bpa) for corn and 3.26 bil (42.6

Doane Production Estimates

Doane pegs US corn crop at 12.312 bil, 155.6 bpa. Doane pegs US soybean production at 3.225 bil bushels, 42.0 bpa.

Producer sales opportunity?

In the daily Marketing Insight column on FarmAssist.com we discussed the likelihood several days ago of a notable short-covering event that would create a pre-harvest peak. This is fully underway now and likely closer to its end than the popular rhetoric

This blog to be updated daily...

**With the importance to the producer of this expected and unfolding pre-harvest peak, I will be updating this blog on a daily basis, with the producers decisions in key focus. Be sure to check daily for updated thoughts.

Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 8-2-09

Sunday Night Grain Outlook By Duane Lowry Sunday, August 2, 2009 OPENING CALL : Corn= 2-3 higher, Wheat= 1-3 higher, Soybeans= 5-7 higher. Weather provides 55% coverage of the Midwest during the 1-5 day window. Warming temperatures are seen in the 6-15