Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 4-12-09

Sunday Night Grain Outlook
By Duane Lowry
Sunday, April 12, 2009

OPENING CALL:
Corn= 2-3 lower,     Wheat= steady-easier,     Soybeans= 3-5 lower.

Weather provides a much drier 6-15 day theme for the central US than any seen for some time. Weather will receive a bearish spin. Rains will occur in many areas this week, but from a market perspective, the focus is probably on the 6-15 window.

News> US Navy personnel rescued the American captain of a merchant ship held hostage by pirates for the past 5 days.

Wheat will lean easier on Friday’s poor price action and expected corn weakness. New news is limited. This market doesn’t seem to have a burdensome level of long positions, which could help to produce more stabilizing price action after some initial weakness.             

Corn will start lower on improved weather prospects for a timely start to the Midwest planting season, as the 6-15 day forecast offers what appears to be a pattern change that will deliver multi-day windows of fieldwork activity. Friday’s price action was weak and technical selling pressures could increase, spurring both liquidation selling and new sales activity from multiple market sectors, including producer sales.

Soybeans will start lower on an overall bearish theme. Technical conditions are vulnerable to a swift increase in selling pressures.                      

In summary, bulls needed a weather story to avoid liquidation and tech-based selling pressures after Friday’s price performance, but the weather will instead generate selling pressures as well.             

This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.