Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 11-2-08

Sunday Night Grain Outlook
By Duane Lowry
Sunday, November 2, 2008

OPENING CALL:
Corn= steady-better,     Wheat= steady-better,     Soybeans= steady-better.

Weather will provide favorable harvest conditions for most areas until Thursday. The pattern appears to have potential of becoming more troublesome from there forward through the balance of the two-week forecast.   

News> The US Congress is considering the possibility of a new economic stimulus in mid-November. The outcome of Tuesday’s election will likely influence this discussion, with Democrats likely stronger proponents of another economic stimulus package.

Wheat could easily see trade on both sides early in this evening’s session, but I don’t see any troubling fears associated with the financial sector and the technical indicators don’t seem likely to encourage new selling in the grain trade. Consequently it won’t surprise me to see a somewhat firmer tone quickly develop.        

Corn has no new news but will find reassuring support from the lack of any new panic in the financial markets. Maybe we start easier on a “just because” basis, but technical indicators should encourage some buying interest tonight/tomorrow.

Soybeans should lack selling interest. It will be interesting to see if a new month helps to fuel some speculative buying interest…I think it could.                 

In summary, there is little for news to discuss. The lack of new fear in the financial sector should be seen as encouraging following last week’s general theme of stabilization and bottom-picking in stocks. The overall price action/pattern in the grain trade remains supportive. Producer selling interest is nearly non-existent. Trader bias is quite bearish and there are sizeable short positions that seem vulnerable to a chasing event. We seem poised for a firm week in the grain trade this week. FCStone is expected to release their latest production estimates Monday afternoon.       

This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.