USDA's Corrected Report data, 10-28-08

USDA revised the 2008 US corn crop to 12.033, down from the October projection of 12.200 bil.
USDA revised the US soybean crop to 2.938, down from 2.983 bil.

US soybean yield was unchanged.
US corn yield was lowered from 154.0 to 153.9 bpa.

US corn ending stocks revised to 1.088, down from 1.154 bil.
US soybean ending stocks revised to 205 mil, down from 220 mil.

DJ USDA Report: Verbatim Text Rev Oct 2008 Crop Production
 
    WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==Verbatim Text from USDA Crop Production for
month ended October 1, 2008:
      ==================================================
                          Update Alert
 
    In calculating crop acreage, NASS draws upon several data sources,
including farmer reported surveys, satellite imagery, and acreage data
reported by producers to the Farm Service Agency (FSA). After the
October 10 Crop Production report was released, FSA analysts noted a
discrepancy between the acreage numbers in the raw data on the FSA
mainframe and the data provided to NASS. Using the definitive source
data from the FSA mainframe database, NASS repeated its acreage
estimation process for dry edible beans, canola, corn, sorghum,
soybeans, and sunflower. As a result, this report was reissued on
October 28 to reflect corrected acreage and production estimates. All
tables, charts, and narratives affected by these corrections have been
updated. For specific changes, refer to the tables on pages 43-47.
      ==================================================
                  Corn Production Down Slightly from September
                         Soybean Production Up Slightly
                        Cotton Production Down 1 Percent
               Orange Production Down 10 Percent from Last Season
 
Corn production is forecast at 12.0 billion bushels, down slightly from the
September forecast and 8 percent below 2007.  Based on conditions as of
October 1, yields are expected to average 153.9 bushels per acre, up
1.6 bushels from September and 2.8 bushels above last year.  If realized,
this will be the second highest yield on record, behind 2004, and production
will be the second largest, behind last year.  Yield forecasts are lower than
last month across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and eastern Corn Belt as dry
conditions during September continued to adversely affect the late developing
corn crop.  Forecasted yields also decreased in parts of the Delta and in
Missouri where excessive moisture and high winds from Hurricanes Gustav and
Ike stressed the crop.  Yield prospects improved in the central Corn Belt,
central Great Plains, and upper Mississippi Valley as September rains brought
much needed moisture to the region.  Based on administrative information,
acreage updates were made in several States and farmers now expect to harvest
78.2 million acres for grain, down 1 percent from the September forecast and
10 percent below 2007.
 
Soybean production is forecast at 2.94 billion bushels, up slightly from the
September forecast and up 10 percent from last year.  If realized, this will
be the fourth largest production on record.  Based on October 1 conditions,
yields are expected to average 39.5 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from
September 1 and down 2.2 bushels from 2007.  Compared with September 1,
yields are forecast lower or unchanged across the Corn Belt and Great Plains,
with the exception of Illinois and Kansas.  Yields increased or are unchanged
from the September 1 forecast across the Southeast, the lower Mississippi
Valley, and the mid-Atlantic States.  As a result of updates that were made
to planted acreage in several States based on administrative data, U.S.
planted area totals 75.9 million acres.  Area for harvest in the U.S. is
forecast at 74.4 million acres, up 1 percent from September 1 and up
16 percent from 2007.
 
All Cotton production is forecast at 13.7 million 480-pound bales, down
1 percent from last month and down 29 percent from last year.  Yield is
expected to average 849 pounds per harvested acre, unchanged from last month
but down 30 pounds from the record yield in 2007.  Upland cotton production
is forecast at 13.3 million 480-pound bales, down 1 percent from last month
and 28 percent below 2007.  Producers in the Southeast and Texas are
expecting increased yields from last month, while producers in Louisiana and
Mississippi expect lower yields due to the effects of Hurricane Gustav.
Upland growers in Arkansas and New Mexico are expecting record high yields.
American-Pima production is forecast at 451,000 bales, down 2 percent from
last month and down 47 percent from last year.
 
The U.S. all orange forecast for the 2008-09 season is 9.19 million tons,
down 10 percent from the 2007-08 final utilization but 21 percent higher than
the 2006-07 final utilization of 7.63 million tons.  Florida's all orange
forecast, at 166 million boxes (7.47 million tons), decreased 2 percent from
last season's final utilization but is 29 percent higher than the 2006-07
crop.  Early, midseason, and navel varieties in Florida are forecast at
88.0 million boxes (3.96 million tons), up 5 percent from last season and
34 percent above the 2006-07 crop.  Florida's Valencia forecast, at
78.0 million boxes (3.51 million tons), is down 10 percent from the 2007-08
crop but 23 percent higher than 2006-07.  The early, midseason, and navel
orange production forecast is 13 percent higher than Valencia production, the
largest percentage difference since the 2002-03 season.  Average fruit per
tree for early-midseason oranges (excluding Navels) is 2 percent higher than
last season but 15 percent lower for Valencias.  Fruit sizes are average on
all orange varieties.
 
Orange production in California is forecast at 44.0 million boxes
(1.65 million tons), down 32 percent from 2007-08 and 4 percent below the
2006-07 crop.  Navel oranges are forecast at 32.0 million boxes (1.20 million
tons), down 34 percent from last season and down 7 percent from final 2006-07
utilization.  The October 1 California Valencia forecast is 12.0 million
boxes (450,000 tons), down 25 percent from last season but up 4 percent from
the 2006-07 crop.  Navel orange fruit were sizing well, and harvest should
begin by mid-October.  A lower than average navel yield is expected since
fruit set per tree is at the lowest level on record.  Harvest of the 2007-08
Valencia crop remained underway in many locations.  Growers expect a decrease
in production for the 2008-09 crop.
 
The Texas October 1 forecast for all oranges is 1.50 million boxes (64,000
tons), down 13 percent from 2007-08 and 24 percent lower than the 2006-07
season.  Arizona's all orange production is forecast at 250,000 boxes, down
34 percent from last season and 17 percent lower than the 2006-07 crop.
 
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the
2008-09 season, at 1.59 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, is 5 percent
lower than last season's final yield of 1.67 gallons per box.  Projected
yield from the 2008-09 early-midseason and Valencia varieties will be
published in the January Crop Production report.  All projections of yield
assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of

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2008-10-28 12:30:12 UTC
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