USDA Report data, 7-11-08

*Monthly USDA Supply & Demand data released this morning:
2007-08 Carryout Estimates>
Corn= 1.598 bil, vs 1.514 bil avg, range= 1.400-1.600, June USDA= 1.433, 2006-07= 1.304
***Nothing bullish here. While not a significant surprise, it was more bearish than expectations.
Soybeans= 125 mil, vs 123 mil avg, range= 115-125, June USDA= 125, 2006-07= 534
***Statistically insignficant.

2008-09 Carryout Estimates>
Corn= 833 mil, vs 820 mil avg, range= 600 mil-1.029 bil, June USDA= 673
***Not a huge surprise, but the trade needs something bullish and this report did not deliver. Corn appears vulnerable to continuing price weakening trends. Any short-term corrective bounce will not be able to build upside momentum until/unless a new weather/production threat emerges.
Soybeans= 140 mil, vs 139 avg, range= 100-175, June USDA= 175
***Statistically insignificant. We may well start higher, especially if outside markets are still higher at the time of the grain opening. Howevever, this market has pumped in a lot of buying activity during the past few days and this report may not be what was needed to maintain current price levels. If weather remains favorable, prices are likely to weaken from current levels during the next few weeks.
Wheat= 537 mil, vs 538 avg, range= 470-629, June USDA= 487
***Bearish, but not unexpected. Any rally potential will be limited and short-lived. Much lower prices can evolve during the next few months if summer row crops avoid a production problem.

2008 Wheat Production Estimates>
All Wheat= 2.461, vs 2.478 bil avg, range= 2.426-2.515, 2007 production= 2.067
All Winter= 1.864, vs 1.852 avg, range= 1.815-1.874, June= 1.817, 2007=1.516
Hard Red= 1.040, vs 1.037 bil avg, range= 989-1.054, June= 1.030, 2007=962
Soft Red= 606, vs 592 avg, range= 553-604, June= 572, 2007= 358
Spring Wheat= 506, vs 546 avg, range= 525-635, 2007= 479
Durum= 90, vs 95 mil avg, range= 87-101, 2007= 72