USDA Report Results, 6-30-08

*USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks data released this morning:
Acreage>
Corn= 87.327, vs estimates of 85.676 avg, range= 83.5-87.399, March USDA= 86.014, 2007= 93.6
***Harvested acreage= 78.94 mil, vs 78.8 in last USDA report.
Soybeans= 74.533, vs 74.360 avg, range= 72.0-76.0, March USDA= 74.793, 2007= 63.631
***Harvested acreage= 72.1, vs 73.8 in last USDA report.
Spring Wheat= 14.197, vs 14.321 avg, range= 14.083-14.5, March USDA= 14.333, 2007= 13.297
All Wheat= 63.457, vs 63.818 avg, range= 63.530-64.000, March USDA= 63.803, 2007= 60.433

Stocks>
Corn= 4.028, vs 3.925 avg, range= 3.550-4.326, 2007 June 1 Stocks= 3.533
Soybeans= 676, vs 669 avg, range= 615-743, 2007 June 1 Stocks= 1.092
Wheat= 306, vs 278 avg, range= 247-461, 2007 June 1 Stocks= 456

*Reaction:
Traders are quite surprised at the overall "finding" of acreage. Corn acreage was the most suprise. Even the projected "harvested" corn acreage was higher than the March intentions and after this spring's problems. While there will be non-believers, some longs will see this as a fundamental reason to add to the already existing technical warnings to exit some positions. USDA's wording today also seem to imply they have factored in much of the impact of the floods and while a more detailed assessment will occur later, some will be concerned that future revisions will not provide the new bullish input that some had hoped for. Again, the reactions may be to liquidate some long positions.

Soybeans could be a different story. Traders will view today's harvested soybean acreage projection as bullish. Soybeans may not want to fully embrace the initial "bearish" reaction to this morning's figures.

Published Monday, June 30, 2008 7:56 AM
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