Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 6-29-08

Sunday Night Grain Outlook
By Duane Lowry
Sunday, June 29, 2008

OPENING CALL:
Corn= steady-better,     Wheat= steady-better,     Soybeans= steady-better.

Weather during the weather was in line with expectations. If anything, maybe it was a bit less than moisture than expected. For the vast majority of acres, recent/current and two-week weather expectations remain quite favorable. Most reports from the country report favorable and improving crop conditions.    

News>
*USDA Acreage and Quarterly Stocks data will be released tomorrow morning. Here are the trade estimates:
Acreage>
Corn= 85.676 avg, range= 83.5-87.399, March USDA= 86.014, 2007= 93.6
Soybeans= 74.360 avg, range= 72.0-76.0, March USDA= 74.793, 2007= 63.631
Spring Wheat= 14.321 avg, range= 14.083-14.5, March USDA= 14.333, 2007= 13.297
All Wheat= 63.818 avg, range= 63.530-64.000, March USDA= 63.803, 2007= 60.433

Stocks>
Corn= 3.925 avg, range= 3.550-4.326, 2007 June 1 Stocks= 3.533
Soybeans= 669 avg, range= 615-743, 2007 June 1 Stocks= 1.092
Wheat= 278 avg, range= 247-461, 2007 June 1 Stocks= 456.

Wheat will start higher on less than expected deliveries and amid ideas Friday’s late dump was overdone. Pre-report positioning should limit selling interest tonight.    

Corn may see trade on both sides. This writer sees weather as favorable; however, who knows how the prevailing trade spin on weather will unfold tonight. There has been a tendency during the last several months for overnight trade just before a major USDA report to be “up”, especially when traders are near universally expecting bullish data. Consequently, it seems that we must expect limited ability for weakness tonight. 

Soybeans may also see trade on both sides, but most likely there will be little interest in trading the short side in front of tomorrow’s reports.         

In summary, weather and crop conditions remain very debatable topics. Pre-report positioning isn’t likely to produce much selling pressures tonight. Most likely we will tend to have a firmer tone most of tonight.    

This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

Published Sunday, June 29, 2008 4:59 PM
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