Pre-report USDA Estimates, 5-8-08

*Expectations for tomorrow’s USDA Reports>
Carryout, 07/08:
Corn= 1.320 bil avg, range= 1.240-1.434, April= 1.283
Soybeans= 152 avg, range= 130-160, April= 160
Wheat= 243 avg, range= 232-257, April= 242

Carryout, 08/09:
Corn= 707 mil avg, range= 0.481-1.114 bil
Soybeans= 273 avg, range= 158-352
Wheat= 424 avg, range= 280-501

Winter Wheat Production:
All Wheat= 2.298 bil avg, range= 2.171-2.40, 2007= 2.067
All winter wheat= 1.701 avg, range= 1.595-1.750, 2007= 1.516
Hard Red Winter= 964 mil avg, range=896 mil to 1.0 bil, 2007= 962 mil.
Soft Red Winter= 519 avg, range= 370-552, 2007= 358
White Winter= 222 avg, range= 202-250, 2007= 197

**The trade seems to be bracing for "non-bullish" soybean data and bearish wheat data. Corn traders expect bullish figures, but fear they may already be largely discounted by the market. It appears to me that all markets are susceptible to upward post-report price movement. That said, the upswing could be short-lived and lack sustainable momentum, producing good selling opportunities.

Published Thursday, May 08, 2008 7:16 AM
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