Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 4-27-08

Sunday Night Grain Outlook
By Duane Lowry
Sunday, April 27, 2008

OPENING CALL:
Corn= 5-7 higher,     Wheat= 2-5 higher,     Soybeans= steady-better.

Weather does not provide a clear planting window for everyone. Some who experience the lighter side of rain totals will find enough dry days between events to advance planting, but still at a slower than desired pace. Areas that have received the heaviest totals will find rather minimal opportunities for fieldwork activity between rains, but some opportunity will exist for most areas. Overall, weather will get a universally bullish spin, but in varying degrees of intensity.  

News>      

Wheat will find support from Iraq issuing a new import tender. Other fundamental news will be limited. Weather concerns are limited. Technical considerations still suggest stabilization should unfold in the current area at minimum, with potential for decent corrective strength during the next couple of weeks. While long-term more downside potential may certainly exist, there seems little incentive to press the short side at this time.   

Corn will find two main fundamental talking points. Weather will get a bullish spin amid ideas overall planting pace will be slow with some key areas painfully slow. There were also more than 3400 May $5.80 calls exercised over the weekend, which will be a surprise and likely catch people short the calls who will be forced to buy futures tonight to cover their unexpected short futures position. We could see a Sunday night trade that finds very few sellers. 

Soybeans will lean higher in sympathy with everything else. However, we may now begin to reach the point where bullish weather talk to corn may produce some selling interest on strength in soybeans due to acreage switch fears. It remains too early to actually see much switching merit, but it will become a more important talking point.     

In summary, we are poised for a rather strong Sunday night trade, led by corn from a “news” standpoint, but wheat is certainly poised to find increasing tech-based buying interest as well. Soybeans have little merit for strength, but will certainly participate as well.

This newsletter is prepared from information believed to be reliable. Early Market News, Inc. does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.