Sunday Night Grain Outlook, 12-23-07

Sunday Night Grain Outlook
By Duane Lowry
Sunday, December 23, 2007

OPENING CALL:
Corn= steady-easier,     Wheat= steady-easier,     Soybeans= steady-easier

Weather offers wetter and more confident moisture expectations for Argentina and most of Brazil through the next 2 week outlook. Current rain activity in Argentina will produce 35% coverage of the corn and 45% coverage of the soybeans. Activity this week will produce 60% coverage of the corn and 75% coverage of the soybeans. Driest areas of concern are expected to receive moisture. Brazil expects to receive widespread rains this week and active moisture in most areas during the 6-10 day window. It is difficult to see weather as anything but a bearish input. The US Plains and the Midwest will see fairly active moisture activity during the next two weeks. The US Delta and Southeast will also see welcomed moisture activity.

News> India says they will likely not import any more wheat during the current marketing year. Egypt again cancelled their wheat import tender. 

Wheat will start lower on weakening price action and chart patterns, finding downside fuel tonight from news from both India and Egypt. 

Corn will lean lower on favorable South American weather expectations.

Soybeans will initially lean lower on favorable South American weather. However, the trade has ignored bearish weather influences the past few days so expectations for weakness tonight come with little confidence due to recent resilient price action.

In summary, we have reasons to expect weakness tonight, but we have seen other such situations many times, only to find the market wants to continue to push higher, especially on Sunday evenings.