Crude, Iran, Grains...

During the past several days there has been some signs that the grain trade is attempting to disconnect from such a strict focus on outside market influences.

Today's early strength in the grains, despite sharp crude losses provides encouragement to bulls who have now shifted fundamental focus to adding "what if" premium into corn and soybean values for developing Argentine dryness concerns.

The new US intelligence report that seems to soften the immediate concerns about Iran may be removing some of the price premium associated with wanting to be long crude. Crude oil price action today is very weak, especially in light of such large losses during the past several days. Crude appears as if it has notably more price declines to unfold.

If crude is set to collapse further, it could quickly sour the bullish mood in the agricultural markets and spur some spec liquidation activity.

Markets are walking a fine line today. IF we close grains/soy "low range", expect to quickly find and increase in selling interest as longs are tightening up protective sell-stops under long-held positions.