Argentine Dryness Concerns

Today is the first day where the weather forecasters are trying to fan the flames of fear regarding South American weather concerns. Their focus is on monthly precip totals during November for Argentina. Approximately 50% of the region has had less than "normal" precip.

The overall current conditions remain very favorable. Any other year these types of concern wouldn't gain much traction on November 23rd, but this has certainly been the "Year of Fear".

Traders are nearly universally afraid to trade soybeans from the short side, but that may not necessarily mean they are willing to buy at current values either. For many, traders are just choosing to walk away from the soybean market altogether.

A similar situation occurred in wheat a couple months ago where traders just chose to walk away. The result was a more than $2 price break.

It will be interesting to see how soybeans perform during the next 60 days, but already many are just too fearful to play the game from either side.