When everything is bullish...

Not too long ago the soybean market rallied on South American jitters, when most past standards warranted no concern. Currently South American weather has been extremely favorable, but the market rallied anyway.

Not too long ago the soybean market rallied on the heels of crude and gold futures. Yesterday, crude and gold experienced dramatic losses but soybeans generated double-digit gains.

Today, crude and gold are up and some want to say that is why soybeans are up 20+ cents.

Not too long ago, the trade sentiment believed producers were poised to plant ample soybeans and thus Nov 08 futures were the "weak link" in the complex. Now, the trade believes producers aren't willing to plant near enough, despite $10+ soybean prices.

This market has been able to rally with limited near-term definable bullish fundamental factors, and we have had to use every excuse imaginable to attempt to "explain" this determined strength. Such occurrences in this business is not completely uncommon, but they seem to have surfaced much more frequently during the past few years amid the explosion of speculative capital driving the agricultural markets. Usually such situations occur in the final stages of a trending market.

The most recent example of a similar event was the wheat market's action that topped at the end of September. Today, wheat is $2.20 cheaper than that peak.

From a trading perspective, the current soybean environment is extremely difficult. From a producer perspective, times like this are usually seen as having been good selling opportunities.

Duane