What are the grain markets watching?

Monday, 7-23-07, 8:45 am:
As price action weakens, trade rhetoric is making a shift in focus. Diminishing are the discussions of long-term ethanol demand and acreage battles, although still very much a legitimate longer-term price influencer. It is important in this business to recognize what is "old news" so that you can properly gauge market actions and reactions. While you may believe an "old" item still has merit, you must recognize when the market no longer cares, or at least has postponed its "care" of that subject. If you are not willing to recognize these developments, you may find yourself fighting the market and dealing with declining equity for a painful period before your point of view again comes into focus.

In no particular order, here are the new topics driving discussion and market sentiment:
1) The US corn crop will be large enough to eliminate supply concerns for the 2007-08 marketing season.
2) Storage will be a challenge during the 2007 harvest season, keeping basis and spreads wide until after the crop is nearly put away.
3) National corn yield estimates are on the rise.
4) National soybean yield estimates will soon be on the rise if we don't develop a threatening 11-15 day forecast by the end of July.
5) US wheat futures are at a record discount to European wheat values, but why do US wheat futures continue in the same trading range it has been in for the past 6 weeks?
6) Speculator excitement for the agricultural futures, especially the corn market, seems to be declining.
7) There remains a sizeable spec length position in the corn market, despite currently trading at the lowest levels since November 1st. Just how vulnerable is the current corn price structure to liquidation pressures?

For the time being, the trade has set-aside the inevitable acreage battle discussions that we know will again surface. That doesn't mean it isn't a correct long-term supportive feature, but it does mean that it is not the market's focus at this time and therefore will not be a supportive feature at this time and possibly not until sometime after the 2007 harvest has been put away?