USDA Report Reaction

*Initial Reaction> Reactions to the report are very mixed/uncertain. However, traders are quickly shifting focus towards weather, which is uniformly seen as bullish.

At face value, the report data for corn is clearly bearish and without weather would be seen as very bearish.
At face value, the wheat data could easily be labeled as "already discounted" by the trade and current wheat values.
At face value, the soybean data is not bullish and would be labeled as "disappointing", if it were not for this morning's weather influence.

Let't put it this way... Weather may support prices, but the foundation of all these markets are extremely faulty and will be so until/unless the weather concerns exist long enough to transform fears into actual production losses.

Actual USDA data>

2006-07 Carryout Estimates>
Corn= 1.137 vs 1.031 bil avg, range= .967-1.117, June USDA= .987, 2005-06= 1.967
Soybeans=  600 vs 595 mil avg, range= 575-610, June USDA= 610, 2005-06= 449

2007-08 Carryout Estimates>
Corn= 1.502 vs 1.418 avg, range= 1.195-1.653, June USDA= 987
Soybeans= 245 vs 221 avg, range= 176-270, June USDA= 320
Wheat= 418 vs 464 avg, range= 400-580, June USDA= 456

2007 Wheat Production Estimates>
All Wheat= 2.138 vs 2.156 bil avg, range= 2.033-2.238, 2006 production= 1.812
All Winter= 1.562 vs 1.584 avg, range= 1.539-1.643, June= 1.610, 2006=1.298
Hard Red= 964 vs 995 mil avg, range= 927-1.032, June= 1.032, 2006=682
Soft Red= 364 vs 352 avg, range= 335-381, June= 341, 2006= 390
Spring Wheat= 497 vs 495 avg, range= 360-547, 2006= 509
Durum= 79 vs 77 mil avg, range= 59-85, 2006= 53